Waller ~32 acres — working conversation pack
26086 El Indio Rd · CAD 12542 (30.15 ac) + 12543 (2.0 ac house) = 32.1527 ac · Planning only — not legal, tax, or brokerage advice. Host target: https://waller.not4theweary.cloud/ (CF Access).
Ken’s take (for Lisa)
- Scenario 2 is the easier row to hoe — one 10+ carve (likely >10 exempt path), then house+~22 later. Less county / plat work.
- Scenario 3 is the opportunity worth the effort — full plat into four ~8s, staged OF + house lump, stack toward $1.8MM and streams through ~2033.
- Attorney gate before lock: do not lock S2 vs S3 (or spend locked four-lot plat $) until RE counsel weighs subdivision / OF / sequence. Prefer S3 in planning; decide after the consult.
- Scenario 1 (whole package at the old path) is OUT. Plan 1a/1b stays as opportunistic dual investment lists.
6-month MVP LOCKED
Window: 2026-09-13 → 2027-03-13. Both must be true by the end date:
- Sale of the first plat/tract closed (first deeded land piece under S2 carve or S3 platted lot — counsel locks which).
- Lisa in NY.
Mortgage rule (LOCKED): If Plan 1a happens or S2/S3 is initiated → payoff ~$72k (not partial-release as the working path).
Owners: all card owners stay TBD until Ken/Lisa claim them — do not invent assignees.
Side-by-side
| Path | Gross (plan) | Prep / work | County | Cash timing | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 · Whole package | List $1.4MM / ~$1.2MM bring-in | ≤$35k prep | None | List 3/15/2027 → hope summer 2027 | OUT |
| 1a / 1b | Bandera $1.75MM · Waller $1.8MM | List as investment | n/a (list) | Opportunistic; don’t expect | Dual list |
| 2 · One 10+ first | $65k/ac OF (10ac→$650k) then ~$800k house+22 ≈ $1.45MM | Survey / light | Aim >10 exempt | Prefer 10+ in 2026; rem. 2027 | Easier path |
| 3 · Four ~8s | $1.8MM (400/500/450/450) | Full plat + 4 sales | Full plat | SE26 OF → house27 → SW28 OF → N29 OF | Preferred* |
*Preferred in planning; attorney-gated before lock. Basis SoT (Ken): $265k. Only lien: mortgage ~$72k.
Scenario 1 — Whole package OUT
Kept for context. Hierarchy: not the path at the prior whole-package framing.
- One sale ~32.15 ac + improvements · list $1.4MM / plan bring-in ~$1.2MM
- FSBO default · list target was Mar 15, 2027 · hope summer 2027 close
- ≤$35k prep · Lisa/dogs NY for workable cleanup · runway cliff ≈ hoped close
- Pros were simplicity (one deal, no plat, big lump) — outweighed by liquidity timing vs staged paths
Plan 1a / 1b — Dual investment list
Agreed in principle (Lisa conversation). Opportunistic — do not expect either to sell at ask; if one does → consolidate onto the unsold property, hold ~2 years, then sell the rest.
| Plan 1a | Plan 1b | |
|---|---|---|
| Property | Bandera (homestead context) | Waller ~32.15 ac |
| Ask | $1.75MM | $1.8MM |
| Positioning | Investment opportunity | |
| Near-ask sweetener | Willing to cover 3% buyer-side if offer near ask | |
If 1a / 1b interacts with S2/S3
- Still proceed with S2 or S3 (attorney gate) when Waller path remains.
- S3 change rule: baseline S3 does not change unless 1a (Bandera) sells. On 1a close: raise S3 asks; house tract may wait 2029 to reuse §121 $500k; push OF on first raw land (rate maybe toward prime).
- On 1b (Waller whole sells): consolidate to Bandera; Waller S3 moot.
- OF push rationale: installment LTCG framing (§453); interest ordinary. Ken owns IRS math.
Scenario 2 — One 10+ first Easier row to hoe
Carve / sell one ≥10 ac tract (OF preferred); hold remainder ~20+ with house for later.
Phase 1 — 10+ (prefer 2026)
- Candidates: southern-most E–W or eastern-most N–S strip
- Ask (LOCKED 2026-09-13): $65k per acre (10.0 ac → $650k; scales with acres)
- OF: 25% down · 8.1% (maybe prime) · cash buyout OK · term flexible
- At $650k: down $162,500 · financed $487,500
- County: aim §232.0015(f)-style all-lots>10 / no new public streets — confirm County Engineer
P&I @ 8.1% on $487.5k — 5yr ~$9.9k/mo is a hard pill; longer terms:
| Term | P&I / mo | P&I / yr | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 years | ~$9,908 | ~$119k | Prior working · hard pill |
| 7 years | ~$7,623 | ~$91k | |
| 10 years | ~$5,941 | ~$71k | Working display |
| 15 years | ~$4,687 | ~$56k | |
| 20 years | ~$4,108 | ~$49k | |
| 30 years | ~$3,611 | ~$43k |
- Longer term = lower monthly, more total interest (ordinary). RMLO/counsel before advertising a term.
Phase 2 — House + ~22 (2027)
- ~$800k lump-sum (not OF)
- Broker unless right buyer (not FSBO default)
- Stack with Phase 1 ≈ $1.45MM ($650k + $800k at 10 ac)
Pros / cons (short)
- + Earlier capital than whole-package-only; lighter county path if exemption holds; keeps house/+~22
- − Must pick the right strip (house/drive on remainder; MH pin on south); still survey/access; two successful sales
Scenario 3 — Four ~8-ac hybrid PREFERRED*
Ken’s aha: plat/subdivision rigamarole is worth it — staged cash + multi-year income beat “no hoops.” *Attorney gate before lock.
Sell-down (baseline — holds until 1a sells)
| Year | Tract | How | Plan price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | SE ~8 (empty) | OF | $400,000 |
| 2027 | Mid ~8 with house | Lump (broker unless perfect buyer) | $500,000 |
| 2028 | SW ~8 with trailer (conveys) | OF | $450,000 |
| 2029 | North ~8 (last) | OF | $450,000 |
| Stack | $1,800,000 |
OF working card: 25% / 5y / 8.1% (ask a bit more + thicker down OK). Cash buyout welcome on any tract. Overlapping notes cover 2026–2033.
| Close | Cash at close | P&I | Note years |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 SE $400k | $100,000 | ~$6,097/mo | 2026–2030 |
| 2027 house $500k | $500,000 lump | — | — |
| 2028 SW $450k | $112,500 | ~$6,859/mo | 2028–2032 |
| 2029 north $450k | $112,500 | ~$6,859/mo | 2029–2033 |
County / process (why it’s heavier)
- Full Waller County plat (lots ~8 — no >10 exemption)
- Survey + four legals; private driveways preferred (no new public streets)
- Plat clock vs first land close — critical path
- Payoff ~$72k when S2/S3 initiates (LOCKED) · RMLO + title for OF years
- 2028 MH conveys with SW · 2027 house still needs ≤$35k prep + dogs out
Hybrid map sketch
N~8 / Mid~8 (house + circle drive) / SW~8 (MH) / SE~8 · file assets/hybrid-n8.png
4-week sprint calendar
Themes are guides — pull FS cards into whichever sprint claims them. Slip OK inside the window; MVP date is not.
| Sprint | Dates | Theme | Exit check |
|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | 2026-09-13 → 2026-10-10 | Counsel + county + bids + payoff quote + RMLO/title | FS-01 booked; FS-02 done/dated; ≥1 surveyor bid path; payoff quote requested; title/RMLO started |
| S2 | 2026-10-11 → 2026-11-07 | Lock S2 vs S3; survey under contract (safe option); Lisa NY dates drafted | Counsel posture; survey signed per authority; FS-06 draft dates |
| S3 | 2026-11-08 → 2026-12-05 | Survey field; plat or >10 legal in flight; OF packaging | Survey progress; title/RMLO named; prep scope sheet |
| S4 | 2026-12-06 → 2027-01-02 | County plat file (S3) or market first 10+ (S2); payoff funding | Plat submitted or first tract under contract path |
| S5 | 2027-01-03 → 2027-01-30 | Plat / buyer diligence; Lisa move logistics firm | Plat advancing or OF under contract; Lisa travel booked |
| S6 | 2027-01-31 → 2027-02-27 | Close path first tract; Lisa move execution | Clear close date or recorded plat + buyer; move underway |
| S7 | 2027-02-28 → 2027-03-13 | MVP closeout | First tract closed + Lisa in NY |
Board (parallelism)
FS-01 Attorney ───┬─ gates geometry / plat $ FS-02 County ─────┤ FS-03 Surveyor ───┤ (S1–S2) FS-04 Payoff plan ┤ FS-05 RMLO/title ─┘ FS-06 Lisa NY ─────────── MVP by end of window FS-07 Prep scope ── after NY dates exist → First plat/tract CLOSE ─ MVP by 2027-03-13
| Card | Earliest sprint | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| FS-01 Attorney | S1 | Gates geometry |
| FS-02 County pre-app | S1 | Parallel with FS-01 |
| FS-03 Surveyor bids | S1–S2 | Prefer Option C early |
| FS-04 Mortgage payoff | S1 | Quote early |
| FS-05 RMLO + title | S1–S2 | Before advertising OF terms |
| FS-06 Lisa NY calendar | S1–S2 draft; done by S5–S6 | MVP: in NY by S7 end |
| FS-07 Prep scope | S2–S3 | Scope only until dogs/NY allow |
| First tract close | S6–S7 | MVP |
| Plat record (S3 only) | S4–S6 | Before first platted deed |
First-sprint cards (FS-01…07)
Deep cards from the 2026-09-13 pack. Expand a card for steps, scripts, outputs. Owner always TBD.
FS-01 — RE lawyer consult (S2 vs S3 gate) P0 hard gate Owner TBD
Why: S3 preferred emotionally; S2 vs S3 not locked until counsel weighs plat cost/time vs >10 exemption, OF stacking, and 1a/1b. Wrong geometry = expensive mistake.
Inputs (before meeting)
- Hybrid sketch + one-pager (N~8 / Mid~8 house+drive / SW~8 MH / SE~8)
- CAD 12542/12543 · address 26086 El Indio Rd
- Mortgage ~$72k · payoff-is-given rule
- Plan 1a Bandera $1.75MM / 1b Waller $1.8MM · 3% buyer-side if near ask
- Baseline S3 stack + S2 stack · OF posture (§453, rate maybe prime)
- July 2025 Montgomery OF lessons (deed+note+DOT)
Agenda (force answers)
- S2: single >10 carve + remainder on §232.0015(f)-style path? Failure modes?
- S3: full plat four ~8s — months/fees; Commissioners Court; private drives only?
- Sequence: survey → plat-or-exempt → mortgage payoff → first deed/OF
- OF: RMLO for vacant land? Note+DOT; ≤3/12-mo; advertising before RMLO
- Access: easements if Mid keeps circle drive; SE/SW off El Indio / Reids Prairie
- Tax facts only (Ken owns IRS): §453 · §121 if 1a first → house→2029
- 1a/1b live list while carving — disclosure / marketing conflicts
- Spend authority: survey / county / payoff timing before vs after next meeting
Call script
“We’re planning either (A) one 10+ acre seller-financed carve then sell the rest, or (B) a full Waller County plat into four ~8 acre tracts with staged seller finance. Mortgage ~$72k will be paid off. We also may list Bandera and/or the whole Waller tract at high asks in parallel. Need counsel who does subdivision and seller-carry. Can you do a paid consult with a written recommendation on A vs B and a safe spend list?”
Done when
- Engagement on file
- Written: prefer S2 / prefer S3 / dual-track + why
- OK or HOLD on: (a) four-lot survey (b) plat filing $ (c) >10 metes-bounds only
- Tracker updated if hierarchy changes
Money: consult TBD — do not authorize plat application fees on this card.
FS-02 — County Engineer pre-app (both paths) P0 Owner TBD
Why: Ask both S2 and S3 in one visit so you don’t burn two trips.
Questions — S2 (>10)
- Deed one tract >10 + remainder >10, no new public streets — does §232.0015(f) (or county equivalent) apply?
- Any filing / affidavit / “exemption plat” still required?
- Frontage / access for a landlocked remainder?
- Typical timeline buyer→deed for exempt split?
Questions — S3 (full plat ~8s)
- Prelim / final / Commissioners Court?
- Fees; deposits; review engineers
- Private drives / shared access without public ROW?
- Drainage, septic, utility letters for acreage lots?
- Realistic recordation if survey starts in 30–60 days?
- What would make YE 2026 first lot close impossible?
Done when
- Named contact + date
- Written checklist/fees for full plat
- Written answer on >10 exemption (yes/no/conditions)
- Best-guess recordation or first-sale timeline
FS-03 — Surveyor bids (geometry not locked) P0 Owner TBD
Why: Survey is critical path either way. Wrong locked geometry = redraw $ and delay.
| Option | Scope | When to sign |
|---|---|---|
| A | Boundary + one 10+ carve (S2) | After FS-01 leans S2 |
| B | Full four-lot plat package | After FS-01 leans S3 |
| C | Boundary + control + pins now; lot lines as change order | Preferred this sprint |
RFP: price A/B/C separately; Waller plat experience required; house+drive in Mid; MH in SW; private drives; neighbor-aligned.
Done: ≥2 written bids · preferred firm · signed only per FS-01 authority.
FS-04 — Mortgage payoff plan (~$72k) P0 · GIVEN Owner TBD
Partial releases add lender timeline risk. Full payoff once is simpler. Ken rule: payoff given if 1a or S2/S3 initiate.
Timing options
- T1: Payoff at first land closing from down / escrow
- T2: Weeks before close if commitment requires
- T3: When 1a funds if that hits first
Done: current payoff quote + good-through · chosen T1/T2/T3 + funding source · title/RMLO notified of payoff (not partial-release default).
FS-05 — RMLO + title for Waller OF P0 Owner TBD
Texas OF: RMLO takes application / negotiates terms; counsel drafts note/DOT/deed; title closes. Engage RMLO before marketing rate/down/payment.
Title shortlist (verify live)
- Capital Title of Texas — Waller — 936-310-0113
- University Title — Hempstead — 979-399-4090
- Stewart Title — Hempstead — 866-721-5117
- Bluebonnet Abstract — Brenham / Waller area — 979-353-2553
Done: primary + backup RMLO (NMLS) and title · operating one-pager · both affirm payoff path and capacity.
FS-06 — Lisa + dogs NY calendar P0 logistics Owner TBD
Dogs make remodel/cleanup ~10× harder. NY move unblocks prep and showings. MVP: Lisa in NY by end of 6-month window. Go-ahead already given.
- Hard move dates on calendar
- Dog transport plan confirmed
- “After dogs out” work list
- House accessible for contractors
Money: move/travel/dog separate from the $35k prep cap.
FS-07 — House prep ≤$35k — scope only P1 this sprint Owner TBD
Scope now; full spend waits until dogs/Lisa calendar allows. Does not block first raw-land OF. Cap $35k. Hire vs DIY claims = TBD.
Done: scope sheet Σ ≤ $35k · finish-date target · execute-after-dogs checklist · explicit exclusions. Trailer/MH cleanup is a later card (conveys with SW on S3).
Key tracker notes (summary)
- Hierarchy (2026-09-13): S1 OUT → 1a/1b opportunistic dual list → S3 preferred / S2 lighter alternative → attorney gate before lock.
- Property: 26086 El Indio / Reids Prairie · CAD 12542+12543 · basis $265k · only lien mortgage ~$72k.
- OF posture: push OF for installment LTCG; rate maybe toward prime; thicker down OK; cash buyout always OK; do not advertise terms before RMLO.
- S3 baseline SE’26 → house’27 → SW’28 → north’29 holds until 1a sells; then raise asks / house may → 2029 for §121 reuse / land→land→house→land cadence.
- After first sprint: S2 → 10+ legal + exempt path; S3 → four-lot drawings + plat file→record (hard gate) before first platted deed.
- Full living docs:
waller-sale-scenarios-tracker-2026-09-10.md·waller-s2s3-first-sprint-cards-2026-09-13.md
Multica: card-ready — do not post unless Ken asks. Do not Multica-mutate from this rebuild.