Side-by-side
Ken’s current favorite to talk through is Scenario 3 (plat + four ~8-ac sales). Scenarios 1 and 2 stay on the table for comparison.
| Scenario | Gross (plan) | Prep / work | County | Cash timing | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 · Whole package | List $1.4MM / bring-in ~$1.2MM | ≤$35k prep | None (no plat) | List 3/15/2027 → hope summer 2027 close | One deal, no county plat; runway risk until close |
| 2 · One 10+ first | $450k OF then ~$800k house+22 | Survey / light | Aim >10 exempt | Prefer 10+ in 2026; remainder 2027 | Earlier cash; then house+22 lump |
| 3 · Four ~8s ★ | $1.8MM stack (400/500/450/450) | Full plat + 4 sales | Full plat required | 2026 SE OF → 2027 house lump → 2028 SW OF → 2029 north OF | Favorite: staged cash + streams through 2033 |
Scenario 1 — Sell the whole package as one deal
No plat One sale of both parcels (~32.15 ac + house/improvements).
Money
- List: $1.4MM · Conservative bring-in: ~$1.2MM
- FSBO unless Lisa finds a NY house in 1–2 months (then may use a broker)
- List by: March 15, 2027 · Hope close: summer 2027
- Prep cap: ≤ ~$35k (Lisa hires remodel; Ken tear-down/cleanup)
- Mortgage: only lien ~$72k, paid at close
Pros
- One transaction
- No county subdivision hoops
- Big lump sum at one close
Cons / risks
- Must be show-ready (prep + Lisa/dogs in NY) before listing
- Runway: bridge personally to ~July 2027; hoped close is the same summer window — NY home may pull Roth first
- All gain recognized in the sale tax year (likely 2027 under this calendar)
- May clear under list (~$1.2MM planning)
Steps
- Lisa + dogs to NY (go-ahead already given)
- ≤$35k prep
- List 3/15/2027 (FSBO default)
- Close summer 2027 → payoff ~$72k → net wire
Scenario 2 — Sell one 10+ acre tract first, then house + ~22
Light county path Prefer all lots >10 acres / no new public streets (confirm with County Engineer).
Phase 1 — 10+ acres (prefer close in 2026)
- Candidate cuts: southern-most or eastern-most strip
- OF: $450k · 25% down · 5 years · 8.1%
- Down: $112,500 · P&I: ~$6,859/mo (~$82.3k/yr)
- Day-one cash helps Lisa NY; income stream covers living
Phase 2 — House + ~22 acres in 2027
- ~$800k lump-sum (not OF)
- Not FSBO by default — broker unless the right buyer appears
- Stack with Phase 1 ≈ $1.25MM
Pros
- Earlier capital than whole-package-only (especially if Phase 1 closes in 2026)
- Avoids full four-lot plat if >10 path holds
- Keeps house/+~22 for a later lump
Cons / risks
- Must pick the right 10+ strip (house/drive stay on remainder)
- Still need survey/access; possible mortgage partial release
- Two successful sales; Phase 1 buyer is the first domino
Scenario 3 ★ — Four ~8-acre hybrid CURRENT FAVORITE
Ken’s aha: the subdivision/plat rigamarole is worth it — staged cash + multi-year income beat “no hoops.”
Sell-down
| Year | Tract | How | Planning price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | South-east ~8 (empty) | Owner-finance | $400,000 |
| 2027 | Mid ~8 with house | Lump-sum (broker unless perfect buyer) | $500,000 |
| 2028 | South-west ~8 with trailer (conveys; light cleanup) | Owner-finance | $450,000 |
| 2029 | North ~8 (last) | Owner-finance | $450,000 |
| Stack | $1,800,000 |
House ask is conservative on purpose (~$35k/ac land + ~$200k house ≈ $480k → list $500k). On OF we can ask a bit more and thicken the down. Cash buyout welcome on any tract.
OF card (working)
25% down · 5-year amort · 8.1% (same shape as other land OF planning).
| Close | Cash at close | P&I | Note years |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 SE $400k | $100,000 | ~$6,097/mo | 2026–2030 |
| 2027 house $500k | $500,000 lump | — | — |
| 2028 SW $450k | $112,500 | ~$6,859/mo | 2028–2032 |
| 2029 north $450k | $112,500 | ~$6,859/mo | 2029–2033 |
Year-by-year income (planning, pre-tax)
| Year | Cash events | Approx note P&I | Meaning |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | SE down $100k | ~$73k | First liquidity + stream |
| 2027 | House lump $500k | ~$73k | Big NY / reset year |
| 2028 | SW down $112.5k | ~$155k | Two notes |
| 2029 | North down $112.5k | ~$238k | Peak starts |
| 2030 | — | ~$238k | Peak |
| 2031–32 | — | ~$165k | Two notes |
| 2033 | — | ~$82k | Last note year |
Overlapping notes cover 2026–2033 (eight calendar years).
County / process hoops
- Full Waller County plat (lots ~8 ac — no >10 exemption)
- Survey + four legal descriptions; private driveways (no new public streets)
- Plat clock vs 2026 SE close — critical path
- Both spouses / title on plat and every closing
- Mortgage ~$72k — partial releases as pieces sell
- OF stack ×3 (RMLO + title): 2026 / 2028 / 2029
- 2028 trailer conveys with land — cleanup + MH disclosure/title
- 2027 house still needs ≤$35k prep + Lisa/dogs out
Risks
- Four closes — 2026 SE OF is the first runway domino
- $1.8MM / rising-price path is an assumption
- OF default/prepay hits the living stream
- Holding costs on unsold tracts through 2029
- More moving parts than S1/S2
- Multi-year tax shape; basis split across four tracts
- If plat slips, 2026 liquidity fails
Lisa / Ken labor
- Lisa: NY move with dogs; hire remodel within $35k
- Ken: tear-down/cleanup; plat/survey/OF ops; trailer cleanup
Scenario 3 map sketch
Not a survey. North ~8 · Mid ~8 (house) · SW ~8 (trailer) · SE ~8.
Scenario 3 — Legwork deep dive (sequence)
S3 is the problem child vs S1/S2. Do the work in this order. Full write-up: waller-scenario3-legwork-sequence-2026-09-10.md.
Critical path
- Parallel now: County plat kickoff → Surveyor → Mortgage release plan → RMLO+title → Lisa/dogs NY calendar
- Then: Survey complete → File & record plat (hard gate for all deeded sales)
- 2026: Close SE OF (~$400k) — first down + first note
- 2027: ≤$35k prep → broker → close house lump (~$500k)
- 2028–29: Trailer cleanup → SW OF → north OF
- Ongoing: Cash dashboard · basis split · holding costs
Do not deed/OF the four lots as separate tracts until the plat is recorded.
Why S1/S2 are less work
| Scenario 1 | Scenario 2 | Scenario 3 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plat | None | Possible >10 exempt | Full plat |
| Sales | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| OF packages | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| Lien releases | 1 payoff | 1–2 | Up to 4 |
Card sequence (board order)
| Seq | Card | Phase | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | S3-01 County plat kickoff | A | Start county clock |
| 2 | S3-02 Surveyor | A | Feeds plat drawings |
| 3 | S3-04 Mortgage releases | A | Parallel; needed before SE close |
| 4 | S3-05 RMLO + title | A | Parallel; needed before SE close |
| 5 | S3-07 Lisa + dogs NY | A | Lisa-owned; unblocks prep |
| 6 | S3-03 Plat → record | B | Hard gate |
| 7 | S3-06 Close SE 2026 OF | C | First liquidity |
| 8 | S3-08 ≤$35k prep | D | After dogs-out |
| 9 | S3-09 Broker house | D | |
| 10 | S3-10 Close 2027 house | D | |
| 11 | S3-11 Trailer cleanup | E | Conveys with SW |
| 12 | S3-12 Close 2028 SW OF | E | |
| 13 | S3-13 Close 2029 north OF | E | Streams into 2033 |
| — | S3-14/15/16 Dashboard · basis · holding | F | Start early; update often |
First sprint: 01 → 02 → 07 → 08 (scope only) → 04 → 05 → then 03 (plat to record).
Scenario 3 — cards in sequence
Same cards as before, renumbered into execution order (not just P0/P1 piles).
Seq 1–5 · Start now
- County plat kickoff
- Surveyor
- Mortgage releases
- RMLO + title
- Lisa + dogs calendar
Seq 6–10 · Plat → 2027
- Record plat (gate)
- Close SE 2026 OF
- ≤$35k prep
- Broker house
- Close 2027 house lump
Seq 11–13 · 2028–29
- Trailer cleanup
- Close SW OF
- Close north OF
Ongoing: dashboard · basis · holding